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Episode 193: AAA Teams vs. the Marlins and Astros/The Braves and Strikeouts/Pickoffs and Pitch Counts/John Farrell and the Jays/Non-Superstar HOFers
Date May 1, 2013 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether good minor-league teams could beat bad major-league teams, the Braves and Ks, whether the Jays should regret letting John Farrell go, and more. Topics * Pickoffs and pitch counts * John Farrell impact on the Boston Red Sox * Atlanta Braves strikeouts * AAA vs. Miami Marlins or Houston Astros * Improving ERA follow-up * Non superstar Hall of Famers Intro Sega Dreamcast startup sound clip Email Questions * Mike (Fairfax, VA): "To what extent should pickoff throws be accounted for when thinking about pitch counts? Granted, it's less stressful than a maximum effort pitch, but it seems like it should play into the calculus. Should it count as a half pitch? Three-fifths?" * Matt (San Francisco, CA): "Doug Thorburn wrote in his article yesterday about how John Farrell has had a tremendous impact on the resurgence of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. If this is true, then why did the Blue Jays let him go to their interdivision rival for Mike Aviles? It seems as though the effect Farrell would have on the Red Sox may have been overlooked by the Jays management. If the Red Sox win the division and the Jays miss the playoffs, or if the Red Sox cause the Jays to miss the playoffs, could this be a fireable offense? Maybe that's a bit extreme, but it seems as though this is a big oversight." * Dustin: "In light of Anibal Sanchez's 8-inning 17-strikeout domination of the Braves on Friday, I made the offhand comment to some friends that I didn't believe this would be the last time this season that my favorite team would fan at least 17 times. I was met with some ridicule and I fully realize this number of Ks is far from a common occurrence but I don't think it is an outlandish prediction consider the Brave's roster and its collective proclivity for going down on strikes." * Mark (Tacoma, WA): This weekend the Cubs have a four game series against the Marlins, which is about as bad as MLB gets since the Marlins don't play the Astros this year. As a Cubs fan, I'm happy about this series because they finally have competition that's at their level. That got me wondering, is there a AAA team that is actually better than an MLB team? I'm not thinking of a team whose AAA affiliate is better than they are (I think we can assume that's not the case anywhere, though I'm not totally convinced that the starting lineup but not the pitching Tacoma Rainiers isn't better than the Mariners). I'm thinking of a AAA team that has a good record and is part of a good organization (like the Durham Bulls with the Rays). Could they be better than the Marlins or Astros? Probably not, but would a AAA All-Star team be better than the Marlins or Astros? Or, thinking about it another way, how would the Astros or Marlins do in the International League or the PCL? First place I assume, but by how much?" * Bobby: the idea from [[Episode 188: The Yankees and PECOTA/Earned Run Ratio/Least Likely MVP Candidates/When to Trust 2013 Stats|Episode 188] to improve ERA with a ratio]..."I like the idea but it feels like a part measure. If we're gonna improve let's dream bigger, replace ERA with something that makes more sense. If you're gonna look at innings per start, look at durability, I'd rather take someone who goes 6.1 on average but takes every turn on the hill over someone who can go 7 but misses starts. I guess really what I'm getting at, maybe it's better to have a counting stat than a rate stat, something like pitching runs prevented, but isn't that what WAR is?" * Juan (Panama City): "We've all heard of superstar players, we've also all heard of hall of fame players. At what point is a superstar player implicitly a hall of fame player? Phrased differently, can you reasonably be a hall of fame player without being a superstar player? I realize that length of career has some bearing on the issue. You can be a superstar for five years, say, and then have your career derailed due to injuries, but I've been wondering about the relationship between superstar status and hall of fame status and would like to hear your thoughts on the matter." Notes * Sam and Ben both think that a pickoff should not count at all towards pitch counts. Sam guesses 8-12 per pitch. Ben thinks more. * There have been 104 games in MLB history where one team struck out 17 times in a 9 inning game. Half have been since 1999. * Sam doesn't think that AAA players are all replacement level, which may be a common misconception. They both agree that an All-Star team could beat the Marlins or Astros. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 193: AAA Teams vs. the Marlins and Astros/The Braves and Strikeouts/Pickoffs and Pitch Counts/John Farrell and the Jays/Non-Superstar HOFers Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes